Christmas Hurdle - The NTF preview

*Picture - Santa thought he would splash out as his Boxing Day yankee was landed!!!

Before we get stuck into analysing this Grade 1 Hurdle I must first issue a Cheltenham warning! The last horse to win this race and then go on and win the Champion Hurdle was KRIBENSIS, in the 1989/90 season. Plenty of talented individuals have tried and failed since the Sir Micheal Stoute trained grey pulled off this achievement. He is also the ONLY horse to have won The Fighting Fifth Hurdle, the Christmas Hurdle AND The Champion Hurdle in the same season. GO NATIVE has quite a task on his hands if he is to get his hoofs on the £1 million bonus.

A little something to ponder on before you go steaming in to back the winner of the Xmas Hurdle for this seasons Champion Hurdle.

On to the business at hand now and this is a race that in recent years has followed some strong Dosage trends; will it continue along the same lines this year?

Lets take a look at the contenders -


*Seasonal form - Horse - Age - Dosage figures - OR - Current price

5 - BINOCULAR - 5yo - (6-0-8-2-0 (16) / 1.67 / 0.63) - 169 - 5/4

Every horse can have an off day but was that what happened to the 5yo at Newcastle last time out or once again was he unsuited by an undulating track with an uphill finish? Realistically, there should be no excuses this time around. Kempton's sharp-flat layout should play right into the geldings hands and the stable could hardly have a better record at the track in the month of December; their hurdlers have an impressive 27% strike-rate giving backers a mammoth £78.08 level stakes profit. His Dosage figures only add to his appeal and I can see him running a huge race and in the process giving the Champion Hurdle market another massive shake-up.
Dosage Rating - 5/5


2 - CAPE TRIBULATION - 5yo - (3-3-13-2-13 (34) / 0.58 / -0.56) - 145 - 33/1

A big no no on the Dosage stats and perhaps a surprise inclusion for this 2 miler. Connections have maybe been spurred on by the horses proximity to ZAYNAR last time out, however, that was over 5 furlongs further and surely they can only be hoping to snatch some place prize money at best here.
Dosage Rating - 1/5

**When I previewed this race last night the following horses were both still engaged to run, however, both were withdrawn at today's final declaration stage.

1-2 - CELESTIAL HALO - 5yo - (3-0-16-4-5 (28) / 0.65 / -0.29) - 168 **NON - RUNNER**
I cannot see the tight turns of Kempton park suiting last years Champion Hurdle runner-up. His 5 career wins have all come on galloping tracks and there must be a firm suspicion that this will not be enough of a test for the 5yo. It is a slight surprise to even see the Nicholls horse among the Xmas Hurdle entries as his last run was only 14 days ago and you would think that connections do not want to bottom him out to early in the season. His Dosage figures give him another hurdle to overcome and there must be better opportunities out there for him.
Dosage Rating - 1/5

1-1-1 - DONNAS PALM - 5yo - (4-1-5-0-2 (12) / 1.67 / 0.42) - 159 **NON-RUNNER**

Entered at Leopardstown and that must be the first preference.

Has improved leaps and bounds this term but whether he is a true Grade 1 performer remains to be seen. Should he come here instead of Leopardstown he is likely to find this calibre of opposition an entirely different kettle of fish.
Dosage Rating - 5/5



1-2-1 - GO NATIVE - 6yo - (0-0-2-4-10 (16) / 0.07 / -1.50) - 164 - 15/8

The Noel Meade trained gelding is an interesting, yet frustrating individual. He is starting to become a bit of a thorn in the side of the Dosage Ratings and has already shown total disregard for the Dosage trends of two Grade 1 hurdle races; last seasons Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham and this seasons Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. If he were to win this Grade 1 then he has to go down as a very serious horse indeed. Once again his Dosage figures give him little chance here but will he pay any notice? In my opinion the price is a bit short for a horse that potentially will not be suited by the track.
Dosage Rating - 0/5


4-3-5 - KING'S REVENGE - 6yo - (7-4-9-1-1 (22) / 2.38 / 0.68) - 119 - 200/1

The price tells you all you need to know about the 6yo. He has so much to make up based on official ratings that I would be surprised if he is finished by the time the next race starts. In it to try and snatch some prize money and with only 7 runners who can really blame connections.
Dosage Rating - 2/5

1-1-1 - PEPE SIMO - 5yo - (3-1-10-0-2 (16) / 1.29 / 0.19) - 140 - 11/1

One can only assume he is in here to gain some top level experience? He has won his 3 starts in Novice company with relative ease but unless connections think they have a monster on their hands I would be surprised if he can mix it here. His Dosage figures put him in the mix but his inexperience must count against him.
Dosage Rating - 5/5

1-2 - STARLUCK - 4yo - (4-8-8-5-1 (26) / 1.60 / 0.35) - 149 - 6/1

A race that has always been thought ideal for the Alan Fleming trained 4yo. The gelding has a very impressive 11 length course and distance victory on his CV from last seasons meeting and if the ground stays good to soft or better then there is no reason he can't attempt to add to that. He has been beaten in his previous 2 Grade 1 efforts and he does have a bit to find on official figures, however, he is an improving horse so there is nothing to suggest he can't bridge the gap. One worry, however, is the record of 4 year olds in the race; in the past 10 runnings 12 have lined up and zero have made the winners circle. Can STARLUCK buck the trend? His Dosage figures do suggest that if he is good enough then he has the attributes to win the Christmas Hurdle.
Dosage Rating - 5/5

4-P - STRAW BEAR - 8yo - (5-1-6-4-4 (20) / 0.82 / -0.05) - 150 - 66/1

66/1 may look pretty generous for the 2007 winner, unfortunately, in his current form 66/1 is probably about right. This is a horse that is slowly falling out of love with the game the more he races and I don't see any hint of this Christmas outing rekindling his fire.
Dosage Rating - 4/5


CONCLUSION

This looks ideal for BINOCULAR to get his season back on track. Conditions look ideal and with STRAW BEAR possibly in there to ensure an honest pace this will hopefully be run at a decent clip. The Dosage figures suggest that this is not the race for GO NATIVE and you have to wonder that if he hadn't won the Fighting Fifth would this have been his first choice. STARLUCK may give the selection most to do and PEPE SIMO stands out as the potential fly in the ointment.

I'm afraid that will be the last of my pre-Xmas previews as preparations for the NTF crew's trip home must now take precedence. I would like to wish all NTF readers a very MERRY XMAS and I hope you all have a wonderful time, whatever you may have planned. Drop me a comment or an email if any of you get 'Narrowing the Field' in your Xmas stocking, this is still a bizarre and exciting concept for me!!

I will still be popping up on Twitter and Facebook over the next few days and I will also try my best to reply to any comments that may appear on the blog between now and the 28th (Welsh National Day) when normal service will hopefully resume.

Until later, HAPPY XMAS PUNTING!!

Ben

Welsh National - The NTF Preview

*Picture - Santa still can't figure out how that 1.01 shot got beat?!?

The 3m 5f slog around the challenging Chepstow circuit is an altogether tougher race to solve, however, there are plenty of angles we can use to our advantage for analysis purposes.

I have compiled a list of stats & trends that hopefully will lead us to horses that have a live chance in this Marathon test.

Stats have been sourced from my own records plus The Grand National Blog & Racecaller.com (click on the names to visit the other sites).

• 19/19 OR 125+ - Class is important



• 19/19 1-2 runs in season - You need to be relatively fresh for this



• 19/19 won at 24f + - Proven over at least 3 miles is essential



• 18/19 top 4 LTO - Current form is also essential



• 14/15 won or placed in a CL1 Chase - Top class Chase form is needed



• 13/13 aged 6-9 - The old boys struggle in this demanding National



• 12/12 carried 11-03 or below - Tough race to carry masses of weight in

Dosage trends

• 9/12 had 8 points or more in their DP



• 8/9 had a DI of 1.13 and below



• 8/9 had a CD of 0.25 and below

*For full Dosage stats please buy 'Narrowing the Field - Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing'

Running style

• Only 2 of the last 12 renewals have gone the way of front runners (Edmond being the last in 1999)

There are still 59 runners engaged in this race so I have Cherry picked some of the leading contenders for analysis purposes -

THE FRONT TWO IN THE MARKET

*Season form - Horse - Age - Dosage - Current Weight - Price

7-1 - LE BEAU BAI - 6yo - (1-0-4-3-0 (8) / 0.60 / -0.13) - 10-09 - 6/1

Quickly shot to favouritism when winning a class 2 - 3 mile handicap at the track by 21L last time out. That was the trainer's first chase victory at the track in the month of December from 16 attempts and indeed the 1st time one of his December Chepstow chasers has made the top 3. The one glaring omission from the stats list that he fails to tick is the 'Won or placed in a CL1 Chase' stat; the 6yo has never in fact run in anything above a class 2 in his 5 chase outings. Backers of the French-bred are taking a bit of a punt with regards to how good he may be and 6-1 looks a bit skinny for me. On the Dosage side of things he comfortably fits within the ranges and he shouldn't be struggling for stamina if he does prove to hold the class needed for this.
Dosage Rating - 5/5

2-2 - THE TOTHER ONE - 8yo - (5-1-6-4-0 (16) / 1.29 / 0.44) - 11-04 - 7/1

Two negatives for Paul Nicholls charge; Carrying above 11-03 (only by 1lbs but will be 4lbs if Mon Mome is a non-runner) and his Dosage figures are a touch on the speedy side. I also have my reservations about the proximity of his last race at Cheltenham on 11-12-09; is 17 days enough time to recover from what was essentially a tough race in the Cheltenham mud? I have my reservations. I also have my reservations about the geldings attitude as he is starting to look a tough ride and the rough and tumble of Chepstow on National day may not be his cup of tea. There are enough doubts to pass over this one for now.
Dosage Rating - 2/5

LEADING CONTENDERS

1-1 - BERONI - 7yo - (5-1-9-9-0 (24) / 0.78 / 0.08) - 11-0 - 10/1

A strong contender from the powerful Willie Mullins yard and one that is hard to pin any real negatives against. If there is one concern it may be the discrepancy between his Irish handicap mark and his British handicap mark. Our handicapper has put him on a mark of 148, however, if this race was due to be run in Ireland then he would be running off 139. If we consider the fact that he won his last race (The Troyton Chase at Navan) from a mark of 119 then he will be running off a handicap rating a full 29lbs higher this time around; that is quite a hike in any book. From a Dosage perspective his stats look good although a negative CD rating would have put him higher up on my list.

Dosage Rating - 4/5

1-1-1 - OUR MONTY - 6yo (2-0-9-4-5 (20) / 0.48 / -0.50) - 10-8 - 10/1

Another from the Mullins yard and once again there is a discrepancy between his Irish and British handicap mark; 135 Irish - 142 British. He is another that ticks most trend boxes, however, he has been on the go since June, racking up 8 runs in the process. It would be unusual for a Welsh National winner to have had so many runs in the season and to add to his task he will be running from a mark 32lbs higher than his last run. His Dosage figures are a positive but I feel this may be a tough task for the gelding.
Dosage Rating - 5/5

4 - HALCON GENELARDAIS - 9yo - (2-0-7-5-0 (14) / 0.65 / -0.07) - 11-9 - 12/1

A horse who's credentials for this race we hardly need to discuss. The winner in 2006; a head runner-up in 2007 and a gallant 7 length 3rd in last seasons renewal. This is a race he loves and I suspect he will once again be there or thereabouts. He ticks all trend boxes except one; the amount of weight he has to carry. His consistency has ultimately been his downfall and once again he has to give weight away to a number of up and coming types. 12-1 does offer some EW value and I would be surprised if he fails to reach the places once more. It goes without saying that his Dosage Profile is ideal for this race.

Dosage Rating - 5/5

/ - FLINTOFF - 8yo - (9-1-10-4-4 (28) / 1.15 / 0.25) - 10-6 - 14/1

A talented yet quirky individual this Tim Vaughan trained gelding has one MAJOR negative against his name; he is yet to race this season. Not only is this a negative based on previous race stats it is also a negative based on the horses own individual preferences; he is yet to win on his seasonal debut (from 5 previous attempts). Trainer Tim Vaughan's track stats also lead us to another negative factor as he is yet to score with his Chepstow national hunt runners from 31 previous attempts. His Dosage stats teeter at the top end of what is needed for a Welsh National winner but this alone isn't enough for me to consider putting some NTF funds on the 8yo.

Dosage Rating - 3/5

2 - COMPANERO - 9yo - (4-1-1-6-4 (16) / 0.52 / -0.31) - 10-6 - 14/1

A touch inexperienced over the larger obstacles with only 4 starts to his name and also lacks that vital win or place form in a class 1 chase. His 4 chase runs have so far taken place in single figure fields and the likely hustle and bustle of the Welsh national may well cause him some problems. Trainer Howard Johnson does not send many runners to the Welsh track and with a record of 0/8 in the last 5 seasons you can maybe understand why. His Dosage figures do at least offer up a positive angle, however, at the moment he does not strike me as the likely winner.

Dosage Rating - 5/5

5-1 - SILVER BY NATURE - 7yo - (3-3-6-5-1 (18) / 1.00 / 0.11) - 10-2 - 14/1

The northern raider comes into this on the back of an eye-catching 9 length victory at Carlisle, however, he is another one who lacks that vital class 1 chase experience. There must also be a small concern over his jumping as he has fallen or unseated on 3 of his 9 chase starts. His Dosage figures give him a chance but similar to some of the other contenders it would preferable for him to have a negative CD rating.

Dosage Rating - 4/5

1-u-1 - OPERATION HOUDINI - 7yo - (4-0-8-6-0 (18) / 0.80 / 0.11) - 10-5 - 14/1

Another Irish raider and another who has packed in more races than is ideal already this season (6 to be precise). His jumping has been very hit or miss recently with 3 unseats in his past 6 chase starts. The 7yo is another who's Dosage is good but could be better and does not stand out as the probable winner.
Dosage Rating - 4/5


8-5 - GONE TO LUNCH - 9yo - (5-0-9-4-4 (22) / 0.76 / -0.09) - 11-1 - 16/1

Has not hit the ground running this season and that automatically flags up a negative (18/19 finished top 4 LTO) although striking him off for coming 5th in the Hennessy may be a tad harsh. The upside of his 2 below par performances is that he has dropped 4lbs to 149 (only 1lbs higher than his Scottish National 2nd mark). The big question mark over the Jeremy Scott runner is his ability to perform on testing conditions, something he has never tried before due to connections believing he is not at his best when there is cut in the ground. If he does handle the conditions then his Dosage figures suggest he could play a part in the finish.
Dosage Rating - 4/5

2-2 - COE - 7yo - (0-1-3-4-2 (10) / 0.33 / -0.70) - 10-5 - 16/1

A very interesting runner from the Sue Smith yard. The 7yo hits all the stats and his form strongly suggests that running over staying distances with the mud flying around his ears is exactly what he wants. From a Dosage perspective he has an outstanding chance and his stamina heavy figures back up the suggestion that marathon trips are what he needs. The one minor worry is trainer Sue Smith's Chepstow record; she has sent 11 chasers to the track with zero success. The stable did manage a 3rd place in this race in 2004 so it isn't as if her limited chase runners at the track have all run poorly.
Dosage Rating - 5/5




CONCLUSION

At the moment its difficult to confidently throw the NTF funds at any of the runners and its even possible the winner has not been mentioned in the above analysis. However, I have always been a big fan of COE and at the moment he looks like my number one pick. His 2 runs this season will have him spot on for this and he will be right at home on the predicted soft going. It is always dangerous to rule a horse out because we 'think' he won't act on the ground and GONE TO LUNCH could surprise. It is almost impossible to ignore HALCON GENELARDAIS and everything looks in place for another big run from the track specialist. If BERONI is not too inconvenienced by the severity of the handicapper then he may also enter calculations.


Feel free to mention any of your own fancies in the comments box below.


Hopefully time will allow me another big race preview before Xmas fully swings into action!



Ben

King George VI Chase - The NTF Preview

*Picture - Santa loves to indulge in a bit of in-running punting!

With Santa getting some last minute shopping in I guess that signals that its almost time for the NTF crew (Mrs NTF, the greyhounds and me!) to make our long trip up north to see the rest of the family. Now don't get me wrong, I have no problem visiting the family at Xmas time but it does impact greatly on my race viewing; my punting; my analysis and this year, my NTF updates! Boxing Day is more than likely a write off for any blog updates as is the 27th which is unfortunate as 9 races are analysed in 'Narrowing the Field' over the 2 days.

To compensate for my likely lack of blogging over the festive period I've decided that all post's that are due to hit 'NTF - The Blog' in the coming days are to be dedicated to the racing action scheduled at Kempton, Leopardstown, Wetherby & Chepstow over the Xmas period.

....and what better place to start than the festive highlight itself; The King George VI Chase -

THE KING

*Seasonal form - Horse - Age - Dosage figures - Current odds

1 - KAUTO STAR - 9yo - (2-2-6-10-2 (22) / 0.47 / -0.36) - 4/6

Can anything or anyone stop the Kauto juggernaut from steamrollering its way to a fourth King George victory in a row? He has won the last 3 renewals by a collective 27 lengths and it will take an almighty effort from someone to stop him adding to that impressive total. If you excuse his two 2nd place efforts at Exeter early on in his career then the 9yo is 7 from 7 on right-handed tracks and in my opinion has never looked like getting beat going this way round. His Dosage figures are spot on for this race and unless he has deteriorated remarkably since his Haydock win I can't see this superstar getting beat.

THE CHALLENGERS

2 - IMPERIAL COMMANDER - 8yo - (3-2-4-2-1 (12) / 1.40 / 0.33) - 6/1

Does he truly stay 3 miles? Can he go right-handed? Will the track suit? Was Haydock his best chance to beat Kauto? Can he perform to the same level away from Cheltenham? Can he outperform his Dosage Figures? With those kind of questions hanging over the gelding I would be wanting bigger than 6-1! It's hard to forget how quickly IMPERIAL COMMANDER faded in last years King George; was the stable under a cloud or does he just not perform going right handed? Too many questions for me I'm afraid and from a Dosage perspective this race really is not ideal for Nigel Twiston Davies stable star.

3 - MADISON DU BERLAIS - 8yo - (0-0-3-1-0 (4) / 0.60 / -0.25) - 8/1

The flat track specialist but can he handle Kauto? His Dosage weak profile should not put anyone off as EDREDON BLEU, ONE MAN & ALGAN all won the King George in the past 15 years with a similar profile. The stat that should worry people is trainer David Pipe's record at Kempton; 0-14 in December and 5-63 (7%) overall. There must also be a small worry that the French-bred 8yo will start to regress sooner rather than later; this will be his 40th race since he started his career as a 3yo. 8/1 is a tempting each-way price but I feel there is better value elsewhere.

1-1 - DEEP PURPLE - 8yo - (5-1-7-2-1 (16) / 1.46 / 0.44) - 14/1

This is a horse I have underestimated all season; is it now time to get some NTF funds on the Evan Williams trained runner? Now rated 166 over fences, his overall record does have a solid look to it, however, I do have a couple of reservations. The majority of his wins have come in smaller fields and there is a chance of a double figure field this year; the bigger field would temper enthusiasm slightly. I am also still not convinced he will stay the 3 miles. Yes he won the Charlie Hall Chase over 3m1f but if he had faced more reliable opposition that day I feel his stamina limitations would have been exposed. Dosage suggests that the King George may be a step to far for this second season chaser and the minor places seem his best chance.


4 - BARBERS SHOP - 7yo - (2-0-8-9-3 (22) / 0.38 / -0.50) - 16-1

The 20-1 I highlighted last week about the Queen's runner is long gone and as I mentioned on my last post, this is a horse I think could be set for a very big run. Dosage figures are spot on for this Grade 1 and any suggestion of the gelding not staying will hopefully be put to bed after this one. For a full report on his chances click here. 16-1 still offers decent EW value.


8-P - NACARAT - 8yo - (0-2-6-0-2 (10) / 1.00 / -0.20) - 16-1

The exuberant grey will have to put two very disappointing runs behind him if he is too figure here. His Dosage figures are a lot closer than a few other runners but they still are not perfect. A convincing winner of last season's Racing Post Chase over course & distance tell u that he enjoys the track but is that as good as he is? His 3rd in last seasons Melling Chase possibly isn't the strongest form on show and he may well find life tough at the top. 16-1 does not appeal at the moment.

THE OUTSIDERS

1-3 - ALBERTAS RUN - 8yo - (5-1-6-6-0 (18) / 1.00 / 0.28) - 20-1

His Dosage figures do not scream 'King George winner', however, for a brief moment in last seasons renewal he looked the only horse that would mount a challenge to Kauto Star. He has started this season in fine fettle and odds of 20-1 are pretty generous. Providing the ground does not start worse than good to soft the J J O'Neill gelding again has a great chance of reaching the places.

2-4 - SCHINDLERS HUNT - 9yo - (2-0-6-2-0 (10) / 1.00 / 0.20) - 33-1

Another who's Dosage figures do not point towards a possible winner. He is yet to win over further than 2m5f and yet to win outside of his native Ireland; not stats I can see changing on Boxing Day. His 2 runs this season have seen him beaten 15L & 13L and unless the ground really cuts up I can't see Dessie Hughes trained runner getting anywhere near the places.

8-8-2 - TARTAK - 6yo - (2-0-8-0-0 (10) / 1.50 / 0.40) - 50-1

Big things were expected of last seasons Arkle 5th, however, so far he has failed to deliver. Jumping errors have blighted his season and even if he puts in a clear round here I just don't see him being good enough. This will be his 1st attempt at 3 miles but his Dosage figures are far from ideal for the test the King George delivers, I don't expect TARTAK to be in their fighting at the death in this Grade 1.

6-1-ro - OUR VIC - 11yo - (2-0-9-5-0 (16) / 0.68 / -0.06) - 33/1

Getting a bit long in the tooth for races like this and it would take a big leap of faith to back the David Pipe runner this year. Saying that, his Dosage profile is more suitable than a number of other runners and he was second in this in 2007.

1-2 - MASTER MEDIC - 8yo - (3-1-11-5-0 (20) / 0.90 / 0.10) - 50-1

Step up in class and distance and personally I feel his rating of 156 flatters him slightly. Likely to be out of his depth although his Dosage figures at least give him an outside chance of seeing out the trip.

5 - RACING DEMON - 9yo - (2-0-6-4-0 (12) / 0.71 / 0.00) - 66-1

Has run well in this race in the past but judging by his comeback run after over a year off last time out, he is some way short of where he needs to be to get competitive here. Dosage gives him an outside chance but realistically he will be lucky to reach the places this year.

5 - ROLL ALONG - 9yo - (4-4-2-0-2 (12) / 3.00 / 0.67) - 66-1

In my opinion, a horse that has always been over rated. His Dosage figures give him little to no chance and so do I. He has been beaten a total of 94 lengths on his last 3 runs! I can only see him adding to that if lining up in the King George.

CONCLUSION

Very difficult to see past KAUTO STAR. He loves the track and trainer Paul Nicholls has stated that his comeback run at Haydock has "...brought him on a ton and he looks better and sharper". In truth, very few fit the Dosage trends and this only strengthens the case for a fourth KAUTO STAR victory. The rest look to be playing for the places and at the prices BARBERS SHOP and ALBERTAS RUN catch the eye.

I will be back soon with another Festive preview for your Dosage delights.

Ben

Dave's Dreaming of Taking the Breeze!

Very quick post tonight readers.

Providing Ascot escapes the clutches of the winter wonderland that is due around the country tomorrow, we should be in for a cracking little Novice Chase featuring runners from 4 of the top stables.

The Noel Novices' chase (Totepool Novices' Chase as it is now called) is one of 2 races analysed in 'Narrowing the Field' at tomorrow's Ascot meeting and features one of my TOTE TEN TO FOLLOW horses, DAVE'S DREAM (1-1-3-2-5 (12) / 0.41 / -0.75).

I am a huge fan of the imposing 6yo and long term I believe he could well be a Gold Cup horse. Tomorrow, however, I don't think he will have it all his own way. The horse I fear most is TAKE THE BREEZE (1-1-3-1-2 (8) / 0.78 / -0.25) from the all conquering Paul Nicholls yard. He is 2 from 2 over fences and last time out claimed the scalp of the well regarded BENSALEM (2-0-9-1-0 (12) / 1.18 / 0.25).

If the racing at Ascot gets the go-ahead tomorrow then I urge you to watch this Grade 2 Novice Chase.

Until the weekend, Happy Punting!

Ben